The North Korean Threat

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The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:46 am

Viewpoint: What is driving North Korea's threats?

What do you guys think? Bluff or actual threat?

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Sir Pun on Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:24 pm

Mostly bluff, but jong un can easily get himself into a situation where he has to do something in order to save face.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Sir Pun on Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:25 pm

But this is mostly abt him trying to keep the military on his side and win them over.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Dennis324 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:40 pm

I agree but what worries me is that in doing so, NK might attack S Korea or Japan.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Sat Mar 30, 2013 12:23 am

Dennis324 wrote:I agree but what worries me is that in doing so, NK might attack S Korea or Japan.

They've already attacked S. Korea twice under his leadership (sank a SK ship and bombarded a SK village).

I doubt they would attack Japan, if they did the US would be obligated by treaty to retaliate.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Dennis324 on Sat Mar 30, 2013 12:52 am

Yep, we sure would. Would Obama give the go ahead though?

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Sat Mar 30, 2013 12:55 am

Dennis324 wrote:Yep, we sure would. Would Obama give the go ahead though?

He just sent two stealth bombers over to show NK whats ganna happen if they act up, what do you think?

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Dennis324 on Sat Mar 30, 2013 12:56 am

Will NK see em coming? Wink

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:06 am

Dennis324 wrote:Will NK see em coming? Wink

I sure as hell hope not. If NK acts up I think they'll be surprised how quickly that million man army is defeated.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Sir Pun on Sat Mar 30, 2013 7:46 am

Obama wouldnt have a choice to react, and the north knows that. This is the reason that any time in the past, their targets have been rather insignificant. But if rockets start falling on seoul or tokyo, i think you would see an air campaign that pretty much destroys the NK military. My concern is the NK people. They live in the most isolated country on earth and hav been indoctrinated and brainwashed for almost 3 generations now. Would we see them behave as some japanese civies did in wwii?

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Dennis324 on Sat Mar 30, 2013 10:09 pm

Probably. People jumping off cliffs because they've been told Americans will eat their babies...

My concern is China. We're tied to the hip economically to China, but if we had to go to war with N Korea...would China side with them...again? Man, I dont wanna fight China...again.

China wouldn't fight us. The modern context is night and day from the Korean War. I think China also views N Korea as a liability.

I didnt write that last line that was bolded. I dunno what happened there. Do I need to change my password?

scratch


Last edited by Dennis324 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Sun Mar 31, 2013 12:33 am

Pun wrote:Obama wouldnt have a choice to react, and the north knows that. This is the reason that any time in the past, their targets have been rather insignificant. But if rockets start falling on seoul or tokyo, i think you would see an air campaign that pretty much destroys the NK military. My concern is the NK people. They live in the most isolated country on earth and hav been indoctrinated and brainwashed for almost 3 generations now. Would we see them behave as some japanese civies did in wwii?

I agree, and hope we don't have to find out about the N Korean civilians.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Sun Mar 31, 2013 12:59 am

North Korea Declares War on South Korea

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Dennis324 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:50 am

Reading the article it sez China and Russia are calling for all sides to ease tensions and / or show maximum restraint.

What, exactly, do they expect us to do when we and out allies are being threatened with nuclear war?

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Sir Pun on Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:34 am

Lol they have to say all sides

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:03 pm

S. Korean military ordered to respond to provocations without political considerations; US transfers F-22s to base in S. Korea

North Korea Plans to Expand Nuclear Capabilities

I think we're going to have to deal with North Korea sooner than latter, and I don't think we're going to have a better opportunity than now (we will no longer be involved in fighting wars in the Middle East, we have an excuse to get resources in position, and I doubt N. Korea has many if any nuclear weapons ready at the moment, which will change if we give them time). Should anything happen, it would be hard to blame anyone but the leaders of North Korea (who've threatened nuclear war on the US and our allies).

As to Dennis's point, both Russia and China probably wish this problem would simply go away. A war on their borders (Russia shares a short border with N. Korea) would likely impact trade and possibly result in refugees trying to seek asylum. More over, I don't think either wants a US friendly Korea that close to them. Should war happen, I doubt the Chinese would offer any help to the N. Koreans (I doubt they would help us either), but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians would sell the N. Koreans weapons.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Dennis324 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:31 pm

The reason I asked was because China helped N. Korea before.

Anyway, if NK did nuke SK or Japan or another country ....should the US retaliate? And if so, how? Should we drop nukes on them?

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:47 pm

Dennis324 wrote:The reason I asked was because China helped N. Korea before.

Anyway, if NK did nuke SK or Japan or another country ....should the US retaliate? And if so, how? Should we drop nukes on them?

While that is very true, the regional politics were very different in the 1950's.

I think the idea is to answer nukes with nukes. That said, I really doubt things would go that far. I think worse case scenario is that N. Korea will bombard some part of S. Korea or attack some ship (like they have in that past), which will result in us going Bosnia on them. I recently read that the US had signed an agreement with the S. Korean military promising to support S. Korea and to help retaliate should the south be attacked.

What are your thoughts?

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:00 am

Bryant wrote:S. Korean military ordered to respond to provocations without political considerations; US transfers F-22s to base in S. Korea

North Korea Plans to Expand Nuclear Capabilities

I think we're going to have to deal with North Korea sooner than latter, and I don't think we're going to have a better opportunity than now (we will no longer be involved in fighting wars in the Middle East, we have an excuse to get resources in position, and I doubt N. Korea has many if any nuclear weapons ready at the moment, which will change if we give them time). Should anything happen, it would be hard to blame anyone but the leaders of North Korea (who've threatened nuclear war on the US and our allies).

As to Dennis's point, both Russia and China probably wish this problem would simply go away. A war on their borders (Russia shares a short border with N. Korea) would likely impact trade and possibly result in refugees trying to seek asylum. More over, I don't think either wants a US friendly Korea that close to them. Should war happen, I doubt the Chinese would offer any help to the N. Koreans (I doubt they would help us either), but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians would sell the N. Koreans weapons.

The more I think about it the more this post bothers me. While I do thing North Korea is a threat that will have to be dealt with sooner than latter, I don't like how eager I was for us to go to war, especially when I'm not in a hurry to sign up to be the one fighting...

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Sir Pun on Tue Apr 02, 2013 7:09 am

Well hell its been going on for 60 years, so its okay to be impatient lol

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:28 pm

US positions missle defense in Guam

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Marconius on Wed Apr 03, 2013 6:53 pm

I just wonder if Lil Kim will back his ass into a corner and find that he must do something to save face. How many of his people's lives are worth his pride???

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:11 pm

Marconius wrote:I just wonder if Lil Kim will back his ass into a corner and find that he must do something to save face. How many of his people's lives are worth his pride???

How many have starved or been worked to death to keep his family in power? That hasn't seemed to phase him.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Dennis324 on Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:25 am

Bryant wrote:
Dennis324 wrote:The reason I asked was because China helped N. Korea before.

Anyway, if NK did nuke SK or Japan or another country ....should the US retaliate? And if so, how? Should we drop nukes on them?

While that is very true, the regional politics were very different in the 1950's.

I think the idea is to answer nukes with nukes. That said, I really doubt things would go that far. I think worse case scenario is that N. Korea will bombard some part of S. Korea or attack some ship (like they have in that past), which will result in us going Bosnia on them. I recently read that the US had signed an agreement with the S. Korean military promising to support S. Korea and to help retaliate should the south be attacked.

What are your thoughts?
My thoughts are (1) I dont wanna go to war with anyone if I can help it. But we do have a treaty to defend SK. I worry so much about Russia and China getting involved. China could help us and I think they may be trying. Russia would love nothing more than to see us get a black eye and would probably support NK.

(2) If we used nukes in retaliation, France would have a crying hissy fit. Every enemy we have at the UN would go Ape-sh*t and we'd likely have very little support from anyone except maybe Israel. The UN would be mad coz we didnt ask their permission before going to war. I doubt the UK would even back us over nukes.

(3) Speaking of Israel...if we got dragged into a war with NK (and we're already at war in Afghanistan), wouldnt it be a terrific time for Iran to hit Israel? To be honest I've wondered if this has been the plan all along? Just like a magic act, its always a good idea to watch what's going on in the other hand, rather than the one holding the flashy object. Our attention has been on NK for weeks now. Whats going on under the radar with Iran? Dragging us into yet another conflict would be a terrific way to depelete our waartime resources. How much aid could Israel expect from us? If Iran strikes Israel, look for Egypt and Hezbollah and Hamas to hit em from all sides. Russia would almost certainly help them. China would be a wildcard.

(4) and the world probably sees this President and this congress as weak. We've done practically nothing in the past 10 years or so to ghet real control of our borders. Slipping agents across our southern border would be relatively simple. Sending equipment through cargo containers in our seaports would be child's play. We are not safe.

So what do i think? IF....if it came to war with NK, we'd obviously have to retaliate. I think we could do so conventionally. But this may surprise some of you. I personally would support the CIA targeting both the NK leader AND the heads of the military regime for assasination. I know we arent supposed to do that...but then again we arent supposed to be funneling arms to Syrian Rebels. Quick, subtle strikes but only in the case of war. Britain tried this during WW2 against Hitler and I think we could do it here.

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Re: The North Korean Threat

Post by Bryant on Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:36 pm

Dennis324 wrote:
Bryant wrote:
Dennis324 wrote:The reason I asked was because China helped N. Korea before.

Anyway, if NK did nuke SK or Japan or another country ....should the US retaliate? And if so, how? Should we drop nukes on them?

While that is very true, the regional politics were very different in the 1950's.

I think the idea is to answer nukes with nukes. That said, I really doubt things would go that far. I think worse case scenario is that N. Korea will bombard some part of S. Korea or attack some ship (like they have in that past), which will result in us going Bosnia on them. I recently read that the US had signed an agreement with the S. Korean military promising to support S. Korea and to help retaliate should the south be attacked.

What are your thoughts?
My thoughts are (1) I dont wanna go to war with anyone if I can help it. But we do have a treaty to defend SK. I worry so much about Russia and China getting involved. China could help us and I think they may be trying. Russia would love nothing more than to see us get a black eye and would probably support NK.

(2) If we used nukes in retaliation, France would have a crying hissy fit. Every enemy we have at the UN would go Ape-sh*t and we'd likely have very little support from anyone except maybe Israel. The UN would be mad coz we didnt ask their permission before going to war. I doubt the UK would even back us over nukes.

(3) Speaking of Israel...if we got dragged into a war with NK (and we're already at war in Afghanistan), wouldnt it be a terrific time for Iran to hit Israel? To be honest I've wondered if this has been the plan all along? Just like a magic act, its always a good idea to watch what's going on in the other hand, rather than the one holding the flashy object. Our attention has been on NK for weeks now. Whats going on under the radar with Iran? Dragging us into yet another conflict would be a terrific way to depelete our waartime resources. How much aid could Israel expect from us? If Iran strikes Israel, look for Egypt and Hezbollah and Hamas to hit em from all sides. Russia would almost certainly help them. China would be a wildcard.

(4) and the world probably sees this President and this congress as weak. We've done practically nothing in the past 10 years or so to ghet real control of our borders. Slipping agents across our southern border would be relatively simple. Sending equipment through cargo containers in our seaports would be child's play. We are not safe.

So what do i think? IF....if it came to war with NK, we'd obviously have to retaliate. I think we could do so conventionally. But this may surprise some of you. I personally would support the CIA targeting both the NK leader AND the heads of the military regime for assasination. I know we arent supposed to do that...but then again we arent supposed to be funneling arms to Syrian Rebels. Quick, subtle strikes but only in the case of war. Britain tried this during WW2 against Hitler and I think we could do it here.

1) We can expect no help from the Russians, however I don't think they would offer official aid to NK (the Russians have recently condemned NK's actions, something that rather surprised me). That said, I could easily imagine Russian arms being privately sold to NK. I agree with your assessment of the Chinese, but I doubt it would ever be more than diplomatic support (China really doesn't want this war).

2) If we respond to a nuclear attack with nuclear weapons I doubt anyone of importance would fault us. If he retaliated to a non-nuclear attack with nuclear weapons the international backlash would be terrible. That said, I don't see why we would ever nuke in retaliation to a non-nuclear attack. We can accomplish the same results with fewer civilian casualties, less international pushback, and fewer long term problems with conventional weapons. If NK attacks SK/US/Japan with conventional weapons and we retaliate with conventional weapons we can claim the moral high ground of self defense and will enjoy general international support. A preemptive attack by us might loose a bit of support both at home and abroad.

I would expect the UN security council will never authorize war (China and Russia would veto an attempt, the Russians don't like us and the Chinese don't want a war on their border), however it might be worth putting up to vote. If war happens, it will likely be a NATO operation (isn't this kind of thing exactly why NATO was created, to keep the Red's at bay?), not a UN one. That said, remember where the Secretary General of the UN is from and reflect on his recent comments on the situation.

3) I would be surprised if Iran would be bold enough to directly attack Israel. Israel is a nuclear state with a large veteran military. Moreover, I don't think Israel would hesitate to use nuclear weapons (something Iran does not yet have) if they felt they were in serious danger (and I don't think Israel much cares about international opinion). Even if Iran were to do something silly like attacking Israel, I don't see the Iranians standing a chance. As for Iran's proxies, Hamas would gladly support Iran fight the Israelis, however Hezbollah is tied up in the Syrian revolution (they've been supporting Assad). Egypt might not be as friendly to Israel as they used to be, but they're no enemies of Israel (plus the US owns the Egyptian military). Also, don't forget that Israel isn't the only country with hostile neighbors. The Saudis and the Turks (Israel's kinda-ally) both have modern militarizes and would both love to see Iran knocked back down a few notches. Iran isn't in a winning position and they know it. The Iranian economy is in shatters and their currency is worthless. I would also point out that it looks like the US-Iran negotiations have shown a bit of new promise in the last week or so.

4)Congress may not get much respect (nor do they deserve it), but Obama is a respected leader in most parts of the world. As for the border, short of having guards standing shoulder to shoulder, there will by ways to slip people across. Our southern border is one of the most guarded boundaries outside of war zones, yet people still get through. People tend not to appreciate the difficulty of closing a border. Heck, look at how easily smugglers have been able to get contraband into Gaza, despite a very closely guarded and highly militarized boarder! I don't think you appreciate some of the equipment our ports are outfitted with.

I completely agree with your closing remarks!

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